Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.416738 0.476926 0.542205 0.618196 0.704156 0.798303 0.909164
2025-08-03 0.343804 0.427088 0.524443 0.646367 0.794688 0.968964 1.188959
2025-08-10 0.269687 0.361682 0.476968 0.631413 0.832204 1.083640 1.421527
2025-08-17 0.209568 0.302383 0.426646 0.604042 0.849464 1.175501 1.639665
2025-08-24 0.170434 0.263503 0.396089 0.596936 0.891275 1.304134 1.923732
2025-08-31 0.139402 0.230222 0.367472 0.587365 0.927497 1.429362 2.220239
2025-09-07 0.120306 0.211312 0.356606 0.601758 1.000237 1.615994 2.630352
2025-09-14 0.097983 0.182917 0.326048 0.580107 1.013476 1.713749 2.917638
2025-09-21 0.082486 0.163129 0.306129 0.572304 1.047209 1.847030 3.277262
2025-09-28 0.069361 0.145040 0.285982 0.560537 1.071817 1.967342 3.629305
2025-10-05 0.062392 0.137299 0.283178 0.579324 1.152524 2.192494 4.187714
2025-10-12 0.054481 0.126114 0.271915 0.580160 1.199760 2.363151 4.668299
2025-10-19 0.048506 0.118172 0.266406 0.592789 1.274018 2.597409 5.304488
2025-10-26 0.043565 0.111547 0.262560 0.608358 1.356692 2.858541 6.025411
2025-11-02 0.036488 0.098469 0.242529 0.586233 1.358615 2.961988 6.450843
2025-11-09 0.030028 0.085440 0.220219 0.555238 1.336837 3.014487 6.779794
2025-11-16 0.025834 0.077257 0.207763 0.544798 1.358895 3.161084 7.322886
2025-11-23 0.022227 0.069812 0.195726 0.533277 1.376671 3.300441 7.867147
2025-11-30 0.020172 0.066269 0.192982 0.544402 1.449733 3.571265 8.733742
2025-12-07 0.017073 0.058894 0.178689 0.523304 1.440758 3.653658 9.182638
2025-12-14 0.014911 0.053866 0.169869 0.515229 1.463323 3.812408 9.827380
2025-12-21 0.012945 0.048970 0.160464 0.503869 1.475555 3.947487 10.430937
2025-12-28 0.012055 0.047469 0.160812 0.520337 1.564547 4.281987 11.557833